Inflation slowed through much of last year – falling as low as 2.4% from a 40-year high of 9.1% in mid-2022 – but it has remained stubbornly high since fall. The cost of services such as car insurance, auto repairs and health care have continued to rise in part because of the delayed effects of pandemic-related vehicle shortages or wage increases.

Two major indicators this week both showed inflation running a little hotter than expected last month. But there may still be some good news for the Federal Reserve. Economists now think its preferred inflation gauge—the PCE,